Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's fall is out of the question as the four-year cycle has ended

Bitcoin, currently worth over $121, is unlikely to enter a bear market in the coming months as supportive monetary conditions are expected to continue, essentially rendering the traditional four-year halving cycle invalid, according to Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom.

In an essay titled “Long Live the King!” published Thursday, Arthur Hayes argued that the primary cause of Bitcoin’s previous bear markets in 2014, 2018 and 2022 was monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. In each of these periods, Bitcoin’s price fell by 70 percent to 80 percent from the peak of the bull market, CoinDesk writes.

CoinDesk expressed a similar view in 2023, explaining that Bitcoin's four-year cycle, which is tied to the halving of mining rewards, is actually influenced more by fluctuations in fiat currency money supply and liquidity, rather than by the halving events themselves.

“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle approaches, traders want to follow the historical pattern and predict the end of this bull market,” Hayes wrote, explaining that the four-year cycle has ended and that the large influx of fiat liquidity coming in will keep the market rising.