Balkans on the margins, Balkans at the center: How does the US see the region?

Once part of the US strategic vision, today Kosovo barely figures in its National Strategy. Washington's priorities have changed, and Kosovo has not capitalized on the period of calm, remaining vulnerable.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump's White House released its National Security Strategy - a document that every US administration issues to explain its foreign policy priorities.

The strategy, which bears the president's signature, emphasizes that "the days when the United States supported the entire world order like Atlas are over," that "the affairs of other countries are a concern of the United States only if their activities directly threaten American interests," and that "the United States will reaffirm and implement the Monroe Doctrine to restore American primacy in the Western Hemisphere."

The 33-page document also calls for the "cultivation of resistance" in Europe, warning that the continent is undermining democracy, blocking peace in Ukraine and facing the "extinction of civilization" due to high migration and falling birth rates.

He also blames European officials for obstructing US efforts to stop the war in Ukraine and accuses governments of ignoring a "vast European majority" that wants peace.

Kosovo is mentioned only in the "principles" chapter, as one of President Trump's successes in achieving peace between it and Serbia.

Europeans welcomed this strategy with concern – “the foundations of partnership require mutual respect, especially in moments of political divergence,” said European Council President Antonio Costa.

In the assessment of Olivia Eno, from the Hudson Institute, the strategy openly acknowledges that America cannot deal with everything, leaves out some regions and problems, and clearly lists priorities, starting with the Western Hemisphere, then Asia, Europe, and finally the Middle East.

This choice, according to her, is controversial for those who want a more stable foreign policy, but it is intentional.

"I read it as a ranking of priorities. Others may disagree, but to me the message is clear: this is our hemisphere, so this is of the utmost importance to us. We are going to make sure that our border is secure. That is the top priority," Enos tells Radio Free Europe.

For critics, the strategy is ideologically charged.

Former US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried says it separates values ​​from interests, conflicts with other US policies and favors the radical right in Europe, contrary to the US's own strategic goals.

The non-inclusion of Kosovo and the Balkans in general in the strategy, according to Fried, reflects both the reduced urgency of the crisis there, as well as the expectation that Europe will take the lead role.

He adds that, given the ideological tone of the new strategy, it is perhaps even “better” for Kosovo not to be mentioned at all.

"The strategy could have easily dismissed the Balkans as a European issue, not a U.S. one. And it could have even criticized our previous focus on the Balkans… why we got involved in Kosovo's state-building or human rights issues, which led us to military conflict," Fried told Radio Free Europe's Expose program.

However, according to him, the confusion is visible even in the capital of world decision-making itself - in Washington.

Congress there is pushing forward the National Defense Authorization Act, which conflicts with the National Strategy.

It aims to strengthen US military engagement in Europe and increase attention to Russia's cooperation with China and North Korea.

The law guarantees 76.000 US troops in Europe, stops major equipment withdrawals and continues support for the Baltic states to contain Russia.

The section on the Western Balkans states, among other things, that "it is in the common interest of the United States and the countries of this region that they have sustainable economic growth and development."

He evaluates the Agreement on the Roadmap to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia as "a positive step forward in advancing normalization between the two countries" and emphasizes that they should strive to make immediate progress in its implementation.

"The United States should continue to support a final comprehensive agreement between Kosovo and Serbia based on mutual recognition," the document also states.

In 2018, the presidents of Kosovo and Serbia, Hashim Thaçi and Aleksandar Vučić, for the first time openly said that changing borders could be the most realistic option for reaching an agreement to normalize relations between the two countries.

Fried says the language in the National Defense Authorization Act is "completely opposite" to that of the strategy.

"It places limits on the administration's ability to withdraw troops from Europe. This is also a Republican document. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, has supported it," says Fried.

Because of these contradictions, as he calls them, Fried also sees “a relative hope” – that the US is not as determined to withdraw from Europe as the strategy might suggest.

For Kosovo, the alliance with the US remains an unbreakable axis. After a meeting with President Trump in September, the country's president, Vjosa Osmani, said she thanked him for what she called his tireless commitment to peace.

This year, Trump has mentioned Kosovo several times, mainly to emphasize his role as a mediator who stopped the conflict between it and Serbia.

For former Austrian diplomat Wolfgang Petritsch, the era of the classical alliance between Europe and the US – the one built after 1945 – is over.

In the Balkans, he says, the US role is shrinking both strategically and politically. The region is increasingly seen as a European responsibility, and Balkan states, especially Kosovo, which is neither a member of the UN nor NATO, must adapt to this reality.

"We now live in an era of uncertainty – complete uncertainty – which for smaller and more fragile states like Kosovo, presents an even greater challenge than for those that are already in the European Union and that can try to act together within the EU," Petritsch tells Exposé.

He does not expect a new major conflict to erupt in the Western Balkans just because the US may reduce its level of engagement. He emphasizes that Europe has a vital interest in not allowing another war on its doorstep, beyond what is already taking place in Ukraine.

The American Bondsteel camp in Kosovo remains a key element of security, but its future weight, says Petritsch, will depend significantly on US-Russia relations.

Fried, on the other hand, is more warning: according to him, the region would become more vulnerable if the United States reduces its presence and engagement.

He estimates that Russia and China would exploit such an American gap in different but complementary ways.

"China will try to buy up infrastructure and key nodes to gain control over more sectors of the economy. Russia will try to use some countries as proxies, exploiting their weaknesses and creating chaos wherever possible. In either case, both countries will see the Balkans as a platform for realizing their broader ambitions," says Fried.

A survey conducted by the International Republican Institute during the May-July period of this year shows that the leaders of the two great powers enjoy considerable support in several Balkan countries.

In Serbia, for example, 50 percent of respondents have a "very favorable" opinion of Russia's Vladimir Putin, while 38 percent have the same opinion of China's Xi Jinping.

In Kosovo, only 7 percent of respondents express a "very favorable" opinion of Putin and 6 percent of China. For Trump, this percentage reaches 52.

Fried says that Europe, especially the EU, must take the lead in stabilizing the Western Balkans, because the region's most stable future is within the EU.

He underlines that the EU must have the power to restrain aggressive elements in Belgrade, who act to incite new conflicts in Kosovo or to keep Bosnia divided forever.

According to him, when Europe fully assumes this responsibility, the space for Russia and other destabilizing actors to play games in the Balkans will be significantly reduced.

"Europe must take the lead now. When it has failed, the US has been forced to step in. I understand that, but the real problem lies with Europe, because the best future for these countries is within Europe - if they are to reach the potential they deserve," says Fried.

The European Union has consistently confirmed its commitment to the prospect of EU membership for the Western Balkans. The next EU-Western Balkans summit will be held on 17 December in Brussels. Of the countries in the region, only Kosovo is not yet a candidate for membership.

Petritsch says Kosovo will always need professional and stable relations with Washington, but it should adjust expectations and avoid assuming that the US will "fix" regional problems as in the late 1990s.

According to him, Kosovo's security and progress will depend much more on European integration, internal political stability, and achieving a true compromise with minorities.

"Compromise is the essence of democracy. I think the idea of ​​finding a positive compromise is not yet strong in Kosovo. But now times are changing. Europe is the most important and relevant partner for state building and for economic and political development. It must now become a new and serious focus for Pristina," says Petritsch.

Fried emphasizes the importance of Kosovo being a democratic state and not a nationalist project that reflects the worst part of Serbia's past.

“I was part of the US decision to support Kosovo’s independence, and it was the right decision. The Kosovo flag is great: it does not represent a single nation, but all the people of the country, and it is modeled after the EU flag. It clearly symbolizes Kosovo’s future in Europe for all its citizens. Our agreement with Kosovo was: we will support independence, but you have to work for a democratic, not nationalist Kosovo. We do not want a small version of Milosevic’s Serbia,” Fried concludes.

This suggests that in a region where the time for waiting for external guarantees is running out, the real test for Kosovo is its willingness to implement the rights promised to Serbian citizens and to show that democratic compromise, not continued conflict, is the path to greater European security and support. Otherwise, Kosovo risks becoming its own hostage, proving the skeptics right. /REL