The runoff that could reshape Kosovo's political map

On Sunday, Kosovo citizens in 18 municipalities will return to the polls to determine who will lead them for the next four years.

In the first round of elections, on October 12, twenty municipalities secured new mayors, while the remaining 18 will be decided in the runoff on November 9.

In this round, the race is seen as a test of the strength of the parties at the local level, but also as an indicator of future trends on the central stage.

The municipalities holding the run-off are: Pristina, Prizren, Peja, Junik, Dragash, Gjakova, Kaçanik, Fushë Kosova, South Mitrovica, Rahovec, Suhareka, Gjilan, Vitia, Vushtrri, Obiliq, Klina, Mamusha and Kllokot.

Pristina and Prizren – the strongest competitions

The capital remains the main arena of political conflict.

For more than a decade, Pristina was a symbol of the rivalry between the Vetëvendosje Movement (LVV) and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK).

This time, the runoff is between Përparim Rama (LDK) and Hajrulla Çeku (LVV), with a minimal margin in the first round – only 0.5 percent.

“This is not just about the candidates – it goes beyond the candidates and is related to the parties’ struggle for their power in the capital, building their electoral base and creating a political stronghold in this municipality,” says Donika Emini, a researcher at the Balkan Policy Advisory Group in Europe (BiEPAG).

Pristina, as the country's largest municipality, has economic and political importance, turning a victory there into a strategic advantage for any party.

This, according to Emin, means that victory in the capital translates "into power and influence at the national level."

After Pristina, the most notable race is taking place in Prizren, where Shaqir Totaj of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and Artan Abrashi of the LVV face off.

Although Prizren is the second most important municipality, according to Emin, the local coalition between LDK and PDK, as well as Totaj's lead in the first round, have caused Vetëvendosje "not to actively invest in this race, channeling its energy into municipalities where it has the most potential."

South Mitrovica – a challenge for the traditional bastion

Another important race, according to Emin, will take place in South Mitrovica, between Faton Peci of LVV and Arian Tahiri of PDK.

Emini considers this battle to be particularly important for Vetëvendosje and its leader, Albin Kurti.

"… because Kurti has developed the national race with the changing situation in North Mitrovica as a narrative. The engagement of the strongest candidate of Vetëvendosje and the Guxo List (Faton Peci) shows the importance that this race has for the party. This directly challenges the PDK bastion – which is very significant," Emini tells Radio Free Europe.

The role of candidate profiles

In local elections, the role of the individual often proves decisive.

According to Emin, the case of Ramiz Lladrovci in Drenas clearly illustrates this.

The PDK, of which Lladrovci was a part, decided on Petrit Hajdari as its candidate in the race.

Lladrovci, who was the mayor until then, entered the race with a civic initiative and won it in the first round.

"This clearly shows that candidates matter a lot," says Emini.

Another example, according to her, is Përparim Rama in Prishtina.

"The case of Përparim Rama shows the impact of a new face coming to a party like LDK from outside Kosovo. Against all expectations, the candidate won, and his profile mattered not only because of his figure, but also for the party's support. So, a combination of factors," explains Emini.

New political map on the horizon?

The results of the runoff are expected to significantly impact the political map of Kosovo.

In many municipalities, the differences are minimal, and any local coalition could overturn the result.

In Pristina, for example, the decision of PDK candidate Uran Ismaili to remain neutral or support one side could determine the winner.

"The eventual coalition could change the situation on the ground," says Emini.

She adds that Vetëvendosje is trying to expand its local influence, especially in areas where it previously did not have a strong base.

LVV is competing in the runoff in 12 municipalities – in two of them as first, in ten as second.

In the 2021 elections, this party had won in only four municipalities.

"An example is the targeting and investment in South Mitrovica, attempting to reduce PDK to one of its strongholds. If (LVV) has an eventual victory in Vushtrri as well, then it challenges (PDK) even more," Emini emphasizes.

PDK and LDK, on ​​the other hand, are focused on holding on to municipalities they consider traditional strongholds.

"These parties are playing defense, trying to hold onto their strongholds. While Vetëvendosje is using a more strategic and powerful game, with the active involvement of the incumbent prime minister (Albin Kurti)," says Emini.

Local elections as a reflection of the central stage

Historically, voters in Kosovo have distinguished between local and central elections.

However, Emini notes that the connections between local behavior and national strategies are becoming increasingly apparent.

Vetëvendosje, according to her, is working with the aim of expanding municipal control, while other parties are trying to preserve their political territories.

“The ongoing cooperation between PDK and LDK illustrates this dynamic well. It reflects a pattern now familiar in Kosovar politics, where Vetëvendosje and several smaller parties essentially face a united front of the old political elite against them – with some minor exceptions at the local level,” says Emini.

Although it remains unclear whether these local agreements will lead to new coalitions at the central level, Emini does not rule out the possibility.

"The tendency of PDK and LDK to cooperate in maintaining their positions may also signal the possibility of similar collaborations on the center stage," says the analyst.

Political polarization and expectations for the future

This year's elections, whether parliamentary or local, have witnessed the polarization of the political scene in Kosovo.

Vetevendosje has maintained the "us against all" narrative, while traditional parties are trying to defend existing positions, says Emini.

According to her, the result of the runoff will be an important indicator for all parties, to understand where they stand in relation to the electorate and how they should adapt their strategies for the national elections - if they are held again.

At this time, the LVV is trying to form a new government with Glauk Konjufca as prime minister-designate, while other parties are calling for early elections.

Therefore, the runoff also takes on a double dimension: local in appearance, but deeply political in impact. /REL/