Is Trump's plan failing? Dividing Gaza risks Palestine's future

A "de facto" division of Gaza between an area controlled by Israel and another ruled by Hamas is increasingly likely.

Diplomatic sources told Reuters that these are efforts to advance US President Donald Trump's plan to end the war beyond a failing ceasefire.

Six European officials with direct knowledge of efforts to implement the next phase of the plan told Reuters that it had been effectively blocked and that reconstruction now appears likely to be limited to the Israeli-controlled area.

This could lead to years of division in the region, they warned.

Under the first phase of the plan, which took effect on October 10, the Israeli military currently controls 53% of the Mediterranean territory, including most of its agricultural land, along with Rafah in the south, parts of Gaza City and other urban areas. Almost all of Gaza's 2 million residents are displaced to tent camps and the ruins of destroyed cities in the rest of Gaza, which is under Hamas control.

Footage filmed in November shows cataclysmic destruction in northeast Gaza City after Israel's latest attack before the ceasefire, following months of previous bombardment. The area is now divided between Israeli and Hamas control.

The next phase of the plan envisions Israel withdrawing from the so-called yellow line agreed upon under Trump's plan, along with the creation of a transitional authority to govern Gaza, the deployment of a multinational security force aimed at taking over control from the Israeli military, the disarmament of Hamas, and the beginning of reconstruction. But the plan offers no timelines or mechanisms for implementation.

Meanwhile, Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel rejects any involvement from the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, and uncertainty persists over the multinational force.

“We are still working out ideas,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said at a security conference in Manama this month.

"Everyone wants this conflict to end, we all want the same end game here. The question is, how do we make it work?"

Without a major push from the United States to break the blockade, the yellow line looks set to become the "de facto" border dividing Gaza indefinitely, according to 18 sources told Reuters, including six European officials and a former US official familiar with the talks.

The United States has drafted a UN Security Council resolution that would give the multinational force and a transitional governing body a two-year mandate. But ten diplomats said governments remain reluctant to commit troops.

In particular, European and Arab nations were unlikely to participate if the responsibilities extended beyond peacekeeping and meant direct confrontation with Hamas or other Palestinian groups, they said.

US Vice President JD Vance and Trump's influential son-in-law Jared Kushner said last month that reconstruction funds could quickly start flowing into the Israeli-controlled area even before moving to the next phase of the plan, with the idea of ​​creating model zones for some Gazans to live in.