Before the dialogue, clarification of the political situation

For a long time now, the issue of concluding the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia with a peace agreement has become the main topic of the Western Balkans, and the insistence of international factors that the parties return to the dialogue table is completely understandable, experts on political developments say.

According to them, for several months now, the United States of America, but more recently also officials of the European Union, as well as its most powerful member states, have been insisting that Kosovo and Serbia return to talks, which were interrupted about a year and a half ago, in order to reach a peace agreement and for this topic to be concluded.

Insisting on dialogue, (un)productive

Analyst Artan Muhaxhiri tells Radio Free Europe that the insistence of international factors that Kosovo and Serbia return to dialogue is due to the fact that there is no other alternative. But, according to him, before Kosovo eventually approaches dialogue, it must clarify the political situation within the country.

"The conclusion of the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, with an agreement that would guarantee long-term peace in the Balkans, is a priority for everyone. Therefore, there is no alternative. This must be understood by all Kosovo actors. Clarification of the political situation in Kosovo, whether with new elections or a new government, will be the first step in the process of resuming the dialogue, because without a clarification, there is no point in requesting Kosovo's participation in this dialogue," said Muhaxhiri.

According to him, this is due to the fact that currently, Kosovo has a government in office and there are no legitimate institutions that would take on the burden of dialogue.

Analyst Albert Krasniqi from 'Demokraci Plus', speaking to Radio Free Europe, expresses the opinion that the recent insistence by international factors that Kosovo and Serbia return to dialogue is unproductive.

"We have seen very often that pressure has been exerted, especially on Kosovo, but the processes have stalled due to political developments in the country and in the end, this dialogue has not produced anything. So, it is good that the Kosovo side, initially stabilizes and is internally unified, has defined the issue of the future government. So, without knowing who will be leading the government, it will be problematic to know who will negotiate on behalf of Kosovo," said Krasniqi.

He added that the country's president, Hashim Thaçi, must stay within the authorizations he has under the Constitution and fully respect the ruling of the Constitutional Court, which has assessed that foreign policies are formed by the country's government.

However, political scientist Ramush Tahiri tells Radio Free Europe that the insistence of international factors on resuming dialogue is reasonable.

"There is a need to talk with Serbia because normalization of relations must take place. It is necessary because situations are changing and other things are happening around the world and Kosovo is losing the importance of the priority to be resolved as an issue. There is a possibility that during the administration of President (US, Donald) Trump this will be resolved," Tahiri stressed.

Political experts have emphasized that the Constitutional Court is also expected to clarify the situation regarding the future Government of Kosovo, whether the current government in office will continue to govern, whether there will be a new government with a new prime minister or whether the country will go to new early elections.

Without a clear status of the future government, according to them, there will be no legitimacy to the agreement.

Agreement under pressure?

But what are the chances that an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia will be reached within this year?

Analyst Muhaxhiri expresses the opinion that this is quite difficult, unless there is great insistence and pressure from the United States of America and the European Union on Kosovo and Serbia.

"So, only extraordinary pressure and a dizzying investment of American and European political potential towards this topic could finalize this agreement this year. But, if this does not happen, then it will be next year," Muhaxhiri assessed.

Analyst Krasniqi sees another situation possible regarding the finalization of the dialogue with an agreement that would conclude the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

"If important international forces, that is, powerful states that dictate foreign policy agendas, have an agreement to complete this issue by the end of the year, they will do it even without Kosovo. Because they will find instruments through which they will legalize those agreements within the country. So, I hope that such an agreement, which will not be in our favor, will not be reached and that it is not planned. But, a little depends on the actors and their will within Kosovo", said Krasniqi.

Political scientist Tahiri estimates that if dialogue resumes, negotiations will be short, because according to him, the principles are already known and there is experience with agreements. He expresses the opinion that there will be no bad agreement for Kosovo, which could be supported by the USA and Germany, because these two countries, together with the United Kingdom, have sponsored Kosovo's independence.

"The agreement will be made this year. I am optimistic. There will be normalization. There will be an agreement in principle. The process will be led by the Government of Kosovo – but only the one that receives the trust of the assembly – and the president will lead it," said Tahiri.

The Kosovo-Serbia dialogue was interrupted after the imposition of 100 percent tariffs on goods from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina by the Kosovo Government led by then-Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, in November 2018. Serbia had refused to return to the dialogue table without the removal of this tariff.

The United States and the European Union have consistently called on Kosovo to lift this tariff, which did not happen during Haradinaj's government. The current acting Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, has lifted the tariff on Serbian goods and imposed reciprocity measures, which has been opposed by the White House special envoy.