The expansion of Belarus by the Kremlin, which affects the security of the whole Europe
James Smith, Political and security observer
According to the “military doctrine of the Union state” approved between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko at the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union state on November 4, 2021, Russia continues to militarize Belarus in order to increase military pressure on European countries. After the “Zapad-2021” exercise, S-400 complexes (located in Grodno) and Su-30 fighters (Baranovichi) were left on the territory of Belarus. The Russian Defense Ministry has started additional transfers to Belarus of Su-35 and Su-30 aircraft, two divisions of the S-400 air defense system and the Pantsir-S division.
Moreover, On January 17, 2022, Russian military units began arriving on the territory of Belarus. According to the Belarusian Ministry of defense, their goal is to implement the plan to check the response forces of the Union state. This also began the first stage of preparation for the Russian-Belarusian exercises “Union determination”, which are scheduled for February 10-20, 2022 on Belarusian territory near the borders of Ukraine and Poland. The redeployment of Russian troops from Trans-Baikal and the Far East continues. In total, more than 20 battalion-tactical groups of the Russian armed forces are expected to be transferred to Belarus. First of all, this exercise is going to affect security situation around Ukraine because militarization of Belarus makes hostile border on 1084 km longer for official Kyiv.
At the same time, the accumulation of Russian troops in Belarus and the conduct of joint strategic exercises should not be considered as an exclusive threat to the security of Ukraine, but also as a threat to the security of NATO member countries, primarily Poland and Lithuania. The statements of the illegitimate Belarusian authorities highlight such a threat. On December 18, 2021, Belarusian Foreign Minister V. Makei announced his readiness to deploy Russian nuclear weapons on his territory. In addition, the draft of the new constitution of the Republic of Belarus, published on December 27, 2021, proposes to remove the paragraph on the nuclear-free zone and neutrality of Belarus.
The Russian Federation does not intend to reach a peaceful settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, continuing to violate the Minsk agreements. Despite the achievement of an agreement within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group on the establishment of a comprehensive ceasefire from December 22, 2021, Russian troops and their mercenaries continue to fire daily at the positions of Ukrainian defenders (up to 10 such cases are recorded, of which up to 30% are from weapons “prohibited” by the Minsk agreements). As of February 02, 2022, a total of 99 attacks were recorded after the next ceasefire announcement from 22.12.2021, which led to the losses of 18 servicemen, including 4 dead and 14 wounded.
Simultaneously Kremlin issues Russian passports to residents of the occupied territories, violating the Minsk agreements and creating prerequisites for justifying its armed aggression against Ukraine. More than 600 thousand residents of the occupied territories have already received Russian citizenship. The number of Russian occupation forces in eastern Ukraine is about 40 thousand people, of which 2 thousand are regular military personnel Russian armed forces.
However, Russia’s actions in the annexed Crimea pose an even greater threat to the security of the whole Europe. As of February 02, 2022, the number of Russian troops in the occupied Crimea is about 37 thousand people. In 2021, the strike capabilities of the Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation increased 5 times, and the amphibious capabilities – almost 2 times. Now Russia has about 30 landing ships and boats. On the territory of Crimea, there are 6 additional deployed battalion-tactical groups from the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation. The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea is also possible.
Additionally, Moscow grossly violates the provisions of the UN Convention on the law of the sea. The completion of the construction of the illegal Kerch Bridge led to full control of the Russian Federation over the Kerch Strait and restriction of the passage of ships to Azov Sea. Russia continues to create obstacles for ships traveling to and from Ukrainian ports on the Azov Coast. Thus, according to the results of 2021, the average delay of civilian vessels at the entrance to the sea of Azov was 23.1 hours, which is almost equal to the corresponding average in 2020 (23.5 hours). The duration of delays at the exit from the Azov Sea in 2021 increased to 39.8 hours (against 29.6 hours in 2020).
The practice of Russia closing areas in the black and Azov seas around the occupied Crimea under the guise of conducting exercises continues. Russia is abusing the agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation on cooperation in the use of the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait. Its warships are approaching a distance of several miles from the Ukrainian coast in the Azov Sea. At the same time, the Russian Federation prevents the free passage of Ukrainian military and civilian vessels.
What will such defiant behavior of Russia regarding the violation of international law lead to in the future?
